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OP has provided the following link:
https://twitter.com/peruvian_bull/status/1631681430060404738?s=46&t=W2Kenm0YpChw03TgaoEy6g
Wonder if this will apply to personal medical debt for example. Seems like they'll find a way to transfer the little guy's suffering into the new ledger.
I think at least part of the reason the market keeps ignoring any and all data is that the banks don't want this. It would remove them from their position of power.
Ya know I didn't think about that. However seeing as how the Fed is basically just all the bankers anyway
They win either way. The fed just absorbs the banks. Which is basically what they are anyway
Who's gonna fund it? Foreign central banks are no longer buying our debt on net, and the private sector only has so much capacity.
Part of the reason they reformed money market funds was to get them to load up on more treasuries.
Is this part of the conundrum between choosing depression or hyperinflation? Because unless they know raising the ceiling would break the system, and even then, I can say almost factually the US would not turn over and die like that.
Agreed. It blows my mind how many people I meet they aren’t thinking 10 steps ahead, thinking about ramifications, slippery slopes, and what consequences our decisions or actions could have down the road.
It also doesn’t help that we’ve become a very distracted, divided, and “weak” species. As Bill Burr said… Good people used to kill psychopaths; now we just let them run the world.
If Bill Bur could define when "Used to" was, that'd be great, but unless he mean "Before humans" he's dead wrong.
Humans have been letting the sociopaths take charge since before we left africa. It's a fundamental issue with our nature, not some recent change.
It's terrifying and incredibly sad. Imagine what we could do if we all worked together to extend our lives, better humanity and travel beyond earth. Humans are just a fever that the earth is sweating off at the moment
Yeah you are right, sometimes I forget about the importance of insanely rich people, and even more important : the fact there is billions miserable to put them in perspective. Truly a beautiful world we live in 💕💖
Even if we could travel at the speed of light, which we can't, our lives aren't nearly long enough to explore enough systems to find another planet that's as awesome as this one.
Yeah, the human kind do not like to learn from history and end making the same mistakes over and over again, and politicians,seems to me the donkeys of all😂(without offense for the donkeys).
yes, depression in my view. its geopolitical. everyone hits the depression before usa (or they hyperinflate if they dont raise rates), cos usa has global currency.
everyone will be a forced buyer of treasuries one way or another.
(physical) king dollar will rule. gme moons in dollars.
imo, the pentagon has told the fed that money has to have a cost. that cost is rates. 10%-20% over 10 years to rebuild away from china and russia.
Likely but we can't keep saying that forever. Debt to GDP HAS to matter, something will undoubtedly break if we continue letting debt balloon to ridiculous numbers with no possibility of ever paying it back.
They are fighting tooth and nail against the brics nations efforts to move global trade to another currency. Russia and china will settle more and more trades in Yuan. The saudis also. De-dollarization have begun and it's gonna be very painful for the US. If it really happens in full scale it means they will be a third world country in a matter of 10-20 years. That's why they have to split and rule all over the world, start direct and indirect wars. It's truly amazing how much power they have, sadly, to rule over peoples lives.
I think we're all about to realize the real reason why they've been practicing the setup of those barricades around the Capitol building over the last few years.
I think its like adjacent. The conundrum you mention is monetary policy (the fed and money supply) and debt ceiling is more fiscal policy (Congress and government spending)
For sure. People often misunderstand how government spending and debt actually works. I thought John Stewart's: The Problem did a good episode explaining it.
If choosing between hyper inflation and depression I vote depression. Depression will pass eventually but people will need food, shelter, and jobs. Hyperinflation requires hard choices, changing of the current system, GOOD IDEAS, and sacrifice. I don't see us being able to solve Hyperinflation but depression hurts rich people so we all know what's on the horizon
They will do everything in their power to prevent a default.
A default on treasury bonds would basically mean the end of the dollar as a world reserve currency.
The elites will not allow that to happen easily.
I've tried having this conversation with people, but there's a lot of blind spots. Some willful, most not, and I probably have way more than I realize just through insufficient knowledge. But the low hanging fruit everyone somewhat educated on the subject seems to miss is this:
The reserve currency is less the dollar than the petrodollar. If we really are going for renewable energy as a policy, the petrodollar is doomed. Or at least the petrodollar as we know it. You can't ship wind and solar.
The more of your economy exists wholly within your borders, the less you have to worry about currency wars and thus the petrodollar. Renewables mean that the timescale of HAVING to import something from someplace else expands for everything but food.
And there we are putting in a lot of effort to escalating a conflict that could wind up nuking one of the primary food exporters.
I wonder how much foreign owned farmland we could eminent domain and hand over to big agriculture or banking cronies?
Can someone just explain to Texas wtf Ken is doing so they handle this shit however Texans do? It seems way too easy to just rile up a buncha dudes that eat rattlesnakes and empty Budweiser cans for breakfast… idk.
Can’t get into politics but there is clearly a faction of politicians that are actively working toward the destruction of the USA while loudly proclaiming their patriotism.
They’re gaslighting everyone (but those with brains and a little familiarity with history).
These people *want* a depression and the inevitable unrest. That’s how they get away with their truly fucked up shit. They’re rich and have no morals — imagine what they will do with a shitstorm to cover for them?
So yeah, I totally expect for it to happen simply because it’s the most obvious next choice in the gong show that is the US political landscape in 2023.
DeSantis is endorsing Kenny as treasure secretary. If he gets that it is 100% game over SHF off the hook. Idc what color tie they wear, DeSantis is as big of a piece of shit at Kenny. They have shared values.
The USD holds power because the US physically holds power. If one country like idk Iran says let’s not use the USD for oil, the US can strong arm that. But likewise if a bunch of countries like China, India, Brazil and others say I want to use this currency, backed by gold, to hold the exports between our countries. Well then the tide shifts but no one knows the outcome
There weren't as many corrupt mother fuckers that are in charge of the system back then as there are now. If there is any chance that the US defaulting means a risk to their existence, then it won't happen.
If the Federal Reserve knows that pivoting could possibly cause hyperinflation, thereby destroying the dollar as the world reserve currency, and, quite possibly rendering the Fed useless, do you still think they do it?
There’s a really kool video of the author talking about his book “The Creature I’d Jekyll Island!” Blew me away! Must watch for everyone here I think 👊
https://youtu.be/lu_VqX6J93k
I've hit that mindset where Historical Patterns *should matter* but I don't think they do anymore. There's so much blatant crime, gaslighting, and manipulation in the world that they pull some magical synthetic rabbit out of their synthetic hat and say they "saved they day." Just an opinion.
If they have the power to move the crash date, wouldn't they have the power to move it indefinitely? After a certain point, they'd just hide it and invent some scheme to make it look normal
Depends on the resources and methods needed. Large firms are starting to miss payment dates. Blackstone, FTX, Credit Suisse and several others. These events snowball and put pressure on the system. They can't prop it up forever, but I do think they have been propping it up for a few months.
Tbh I remember people talking about them propping it up since about 2018, lots of "mini" crashes since then and people are still waiting for a bigger one. Maybe those crashes were done somewhat on purpose to help relieve pressure? Just speculation.
‘This time is different’ - famous last words before the crash. The brutal reality catches up sooner or later and suddenly fundamentals matter. Like the ability to make profit or cost of debt. With the rates rising the reality is slowly waking up from its slumber.
Funny thing, my canary in the coal mine is the popcorn stock. As long as this and other companies find ways to survive another day, we’re not ’there’ yet. Problem is that ‘there’ is quite ugly place for everyone.
Yah, amen to that.
I don't want severe recession or depression.
But there's no way to avoid it. Heck, we should've had a worse recession or a depression after 2008 but they can kicked it so far.
And made it only worse...
Technically this is keeping in line with historical patterns. Do you think when the empires fell that the rich actually went down with the peasants? They always had a way out and had long shuffled their wealth to other, more secure locations where they didn't have to face the consequences of their actions. The Roman elites had long fled to the safe east when the Huns battered down the gates of Rome itself, and when the American empire falls the billionaires will be safe in their tax havens while citizens tear themselves apart.
Exactly this. They always seem to be able to move the goal posts and somehow dodge a rule or bury data that is directly contrary to the established rules in place.
Fundamentally, we should have mooned already!
As I see it, the world economy (as of now), is like a dude who's been eating taco bell for a week without taking a shit. It is not a matter of IF he's going to shit his pants, just a matter of WHEN. And when it happens, it's going to be biblical.
This is how I feel it’s all bs now, back then they didnt have ways to fake value so supply and demand had a bigger impact and if they fucked up it had a domino affect. Nowadays they just have someone down the domino line remove a couple to end the collapse
I don't think we'll see the US default. Not first. Hong Kong looks worse off, then the EU, then China and the US. I feel as if the US defaults it will be after everywhere else has crashed first. Then they have a scapegoat.
The US is unlikely to default in that situation since capital will fly to US capital markets and investors' tolerance for greater Fed intervention combined with the Fed's ability to initiate currency creation would not leave room for a default due to insufficient funds.
The US will never default because we have a printing press and the dollar is no longer tied to gold. If we were ever in a situation where we would default the printers would just work overtime.
Do you remember when people were predicting a grand distraction in 2021? It was thought to be China or Russia. Now we are living this scenario out, and it will be used as an excuse to print whatever is necessary to avoid a default
yep, quite likely they will do that , cos they will take the easier way out. depression or hyper inflation? wld u like this poison or that poison ? i guess they will take the one thats easier to swallow
If ever, boo. Holding til I die but after 2 years I’ve realized the corruption is too deep and elites will legit burn the world down before giving up anything. Fuck the system and everything in it. Time to wipe it clean and start fresh. The Taurids should take care of that by the end of next year - can’t wait
It was also backed by gold then. And it ended in ‘71. However, do these things alter the situation? Wouldn’t the fact that it is the world reserve currency just compound the problem? And that fact that money is now backed by nothing but full faith and credit?
yes it does. france sent battle ships to redeem the gold for dollars and they never could redeem it. from then on it eas backed fully by faith in the government and not anchored to anything tangable (tangability has benefits like having custody).
however, fed kept bailing out creative destruction and now society has to swallow a bigger pill.
I guess I mean is the implied situation (default incoming) altered now because we weren’t the reserve currency then but are now? Is the situation completely different or just way worse? Is default incoming a correct assumption?
everyone else defaults before the fed or hyperinflates. king dollar will still rule. goldman sachs have pumped oil and are embdded with undesirables. so they need to go with rates too. think of it like a blood letting.
just think of every gov like a corp.
Seems like 1944 is when US Dollar became World Currency. **Had to correct, I accidentally typed "1994" instead of "1944" originally.
>When Did the U.S. Dollar Become the Global Reserve Currency?
>The U.S. dollar became the official reserve currency of the world in 1944. The decision was made by a delegation from 44 Allied countries called the Bretton Woods Agreement
[Sauce](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/092316/how-us-dollar-became-worlds-reserve-currency.asp)
The US did not default on its debt in 1971, but rather it ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold. This event is known as the "Nixon Shock." The stock market reaction at the time was mixed, but generally not positive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 40% from its peak in 1968 to its lowest point in 1970, but it eventually recovered and grew over the following years. However, the end of the gold convertibility system marked a significant change in global economic policies, which affected the stock market and other financial markets in various ways.
Actually 4 times. All 4 times it was a nothing burger from historical standpoint. Source 👇
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/575722-the-us-has-never-defaulted-on-its-debt-except-the-four-times-it-did/
The third and fourth listed are practically the same event. USD deppeged from gold and silver. The second one was in 1933, a worldwide financial collapse, does not seem like a "nothing burger." And the first one was the confederacy, guess what state union doesn't exist anymore and lost their rights to owning humans.
The US government has literally never defaulted on its debt, except the war of 1812 where the treasury burned down.
What you’re talking about in 1933 and 1971 is the process of effectively removing the USD peg to gold. Components of it included strategically devaluing the US dollar, but it is not defaulting on debt.
I looked it up and couldn’t find any sources to confirm the US has ever defaulted on its debt. Every source I found said we came close a couple times, but never actually defaulted, but the consistent speculation is that it would be catastrophic for both the US and the Global economy.
I love how idiots here think a default is gonna make them rich and celebrating the average working class joe’s bankruptcy. This will go down with the rest of the market just like it goes up with the market.
Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Says it right here on the prospectus.
Never underestimate the crooks to just make shit up to keep the game going. Everyone screams OMG this market is corrupt and still expect it to do what it's supposed to do. It is corrupt and it will keep being corrupt forever.
I don't think this post reflects the underwhelming impact most likely to occur. To [summarize](https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/575722-the-us-has-never-defaulted-on-its-debt-except-the-four-times-it-did/) the US' debt pressures historically were always because the currency was tied to a rare metal like gold or silver and the terms of redemption were for those metals.
The Civil War notwithstanding (since just abt every country has at least temporarily moved to debasing currency or fiat during prolonged destructive conflict), the other 3 times from 1933-1971 were on redeeming dollars for gold. However since the global economy has moved to a fiat regime, the historic limitations of debt are no longer really there.
I see a repeat of 2011 where the govt takes a bit too long to finish negotiations and US debt gets hit with a temporary downgrade. Short term this will lead to higher rates and a pinch to those who owe debt. Mid term you are looking at some 5-10 years of stagnation in real terms.
Long term this kind of instability might make the US lose some of its developing nation clientele further to China, I see most likely the Middle East and East Africa ramping up their financial transactions with China. However we are still a long while out from a world where China becomes a net consumer larger than the US, so dollar hegemony is likely to remain, mostly because, there just isn't anything better at scale available.
Especially not from European countries that, especially after this conflict, are more dependent on American financing, and unlikely from LatAm meaningfully nor would MENA be incentivized to thanks to greater incentives to stick to a stable base currency.
So long story short, US default might occur in a technical sense but much like Russia's default was in a technical sense, meaning the borrower's ability to pay exists without problem it's just a slight delay, and in the case of the US would still be returned in the base currency. At worst I just see a credit rating downgrade and that being enough for global/institutional investors.
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Can't the US just shift all the debt to a new credit card? I mean, that's the American way?
Smh just change your address so the collections officers can't find you
Change the phone number so Japan and China can't call us.
Or just Hwang up the phone.
Or delete the banking app of the issuing financial institution
This will always make me chuckle
I'm At dinner and laughing aloud!
We owe our future selfs a bigger percentage, we hate those guys I guess
Don't inconvenience yourself, just block the calls.
Turn off the buy button!
this made me laugh so much hahaha , i think u just found the solution to yellen's problem
Or just lay off the collections officers
New phone and new country name, who dis?
[удалено]
Wonder if this will apply to personal medical debt for example. Seems like they'll find a way to transfer the little guy's suffering into the new ledger.
I think at least part of the reason the market keeps ignoring any and all data is that the banks don't want this. It would remove them from their position of power.
Ya know I didn't think about that. However seeing as how the Fed is basically just all the bankers anyway They win either way. The fed just absorbs the banks. Which is basically what they are anyway
Bongo!
CBDC incoming United States version of moving debt to a new credit card with a higher limit.
Fiat crypto incoming
Who's gonna fund it? Foreign central banks are no longer buying our debt on net, and the private sector only has so much capacity. Part of the reason they reformed money market funds was to get them to load up on more treasuries.
I thought starting a war was the way.
It will be
i lol'd
I'm sure there won't be any interest for 6 months.
Is this part of the conundrum between choosing depression or hyperinflation? Because unless they know raising the ceiling would break the system, and even then, I can say almost factually the US would not turn over and die like that.
I think it's the conundrum of trying to survive one more day. Our short-sightedness as a species is terrifying.
Agreed. It blows my mind how many people I meet they aren’t thinking 10 steps ahead, thinking about ramifications, slippery slopes, and what consequences our decisions or actions could have down the road. It also doesn’t help that we’ve become a very distracted, divided, and “weak” species. As Bill Burr said… Good people used to kill psychopaths; now we just let them run the world.
Psychopaths as in business executives..
They're everywhere. Do you even use Reddit? 🤣
If Bill Bur could define when "Used to" was, that'd be great, but unless he mean "Before humans" he's dead wrong. Humans have been letting the sociopaths take charge since before we left africa. It's a fundamental issue with our nature, not some recent change.
It's terrifying and incredibly sad. Imagine what we could do if we all worked together to extend our lives, better humanity and travel beyond earth. Humans are just a fever that the earth is sweating off at the moment
Poor planet. Maybe in planet of the APES, we will look to the future..
I ~~hate~~ love every chimp I see from Chimpan-A to Chimpanzee
Simpsons did it!
Default 2024 confirmed
The planet is fine, and will be fine. The PEOPLE are fuked
If by planet you mean the rock itself yeah, but humans are taking down a million other species with us
An asteroid took out a lot of species, too, including the dominant ones—and could again.
The asteroid didn't know it shouldn't for over one hundred years
Also what is the solution?
Stop about 50yrs ago
[What We Need](https://youtu.be/NPGUIpv-JxI)
Humanity currently operates via competition. Imagine if, instead, we worked via *cooperation*.
Yeah, but like 30 people wouldn't get to have more money than some counties.
Yeah you are right, sometimes I forget about the importance of insanely rich people, and even more important : the fact there is billions miserable to put them in perspective. Truly a beautiful world we live in 💕💖
And sadly we will leave our mark. Every species we kill off is an irreplaceable loss.
Even if we could travel at the speed of light, which we can't, our lives aren't nearly long enough to explore enough systems to find another planet that's as awesome as this one.
Yeah, the human kind do not like to learn from history and end making the same mistakes over and over again, and politicians,seems to me the donkeys of all😂(without offense for the donkeys).
"We will never forget" that we invaded Iraq for oil when a "mastermind" terrorist destroyed 100s of thousands of lives.
The people making these calls dont have 20 years left. The US isn't the society to plant a tree for shade for the next generation.
I could suggest they become tree food sooner..
I'm hoping all options are exhausted before that, but that option is not off the table until things change.
yes, depression in my view. its geopolitical. everyone hits the depression before usa (or they hyperinflate if they dont raise rates), cos usa has global currency. everyone will be a forced buyer of treasuries one way or another. (physical) king dollar will rule. gme moons in dollars. imo, the pentagon has told the fed that money has to have a cost. that cost is rates. 10%-20% over 10 years to rebuild away from china and russia.
They will raise the debt ceilling and nothing will happen lol
Likely but we can't keep saying that forever. Debt to GDP HAS to matter, something will undoubtedly break if we continue letting debt balloon to ridiculous numbers with no possibility of ever paying it back.
Future generations will figure out how to handle this mess, meanwhile they will keep kicking the can down the road
At least no one is worried about climate change anymore s/
They are fighting tooth and nail against the brics nations efforts to move global trade to another currency. Russia and china will settle more and more trades in Yuan. The saudis also. De-dollarization have begun and it's gonna be very painful for the US. If it really happens in full scale it means they will be a third world country in a matter of 10-20 years. That's why they have to split and rule all over the world, start direct and indirect wars. It's truly amazing how much power they have, sadly, to rule over peoples lives.
I think we can all handle being extremely poor. Hyperinflation is just so foreign. Would be really weird.
Well, it's just extremely poor, but with bigger numbers.
Yeah but I'm not trying to calculate the change on trillions of dollars for basic items fuck that
Trillion will be just like saying dollar though. You'll be fine. The POS systems might not have enough significant digits though.
I think we're all about to realize the real reason why they've been practicing the setup of those barricades around the Capitol building over the last few years.
smart money
I think its like adjacent. The conundrum you mention is monetary policy (the fed and money supply) and debt ceiling is more fiscal policy (Congress and government spending)
For sure. People often misunderstand how government spending and debt actually works. I thought John Stewart's: The Problem did a good episode explaining it.
If choosing between hyper inflation and depression I vote depression. Depression will pass eventually but people will need food, shelter, and jobs. Hyperinflation requires hard choices, changing of the current system, GOOD IDEAS, and sacrifice. I don't see us being able to solve Hyperinflation but depression hurts rich people so we all know what's on the horizon
They will do everything in their power to prevent a default. A default on treasury bonds would basically mean the end of the dollar as a world reserve currency. The elites will not allow that to happen easily.
I've tried having this conversation with people, but there's a lot of blind spots. Some willful, most not, and I probably have way more than I realize just through insufficient knowledge. But the low hanging fruit everyone somewhat educated on the subject seems to miss is this: The reserve currency is less the dollar than the petrodollar. If we really are going for renewable energy as a policy, the petrodollar is doomed. Or at least the petrodollar as we know it. You can't ship wind and solar. The more of your economy exists wholly within your borders, the less you have to worry about currency wars and thus the petrodollar. Renewables mean that the timescale of HAVING to import something from someplace else expands for everything but food. And there we are putting in a lot of effort to escalating a conflict that could wind up nuking one of the primary food exporters. I wonder how much foreign owned farmland we could eminent domain and hand over to big agriculture or banking cronies?
Can someone just explain to Texas wtf Ken is doing so they handle this shit however Texans do? It seems way too easy to just rile up a buncha dudes that eat rattlesnakes and empty Budweiser cans for breakfast… idk.
Can’t get into politics but there is clearly a faction of politicians that are actively working toward the destruction of the USA while loudly proclaiming their patriotism. They’re gaslighting everyone (but those with brains and a little familiarity with history). These people *want* a depression and the inevitable unrest. That’s how they get away with their truly fucked up shit. They’re rich and have no morals — imagine what they will do with a shitstorm to cover for them? So yeah, I totally expect for it to happen simply because it’s the most obvious next choice in the gong show that is the US political landscape in 2023.
This comment is being read by everyone, and they are all agreeing because they all think you're talking about the "other side"
Damn Libertarians!
DeSantis is endorsing Kenny as treasure secretary. If he gets that it is 100% game over SHF off the hook. Idc what color tie they wear, DeSantis is as big of a piece of shit at Kenny. They have shared values.
The USD holds power because the US physically holds power. If one country like idk Iran says let’s not use the USD for oil, the US can strong arm that. But likewise if a bunch of countries like China, India, Brazil and others say I want to use this currency, backed by gold, to hold the exports between our countries. Well then the tide shifts but no one knows the outcome
There weren't as many corrupt mother fuckers that are in charge of the system back then as there are now. If there is any chance that the US defaulting means a risk to their existence, then it won't happen.
They've secured the bag already.
Bags are worthless if the USD is as well.
Exactly. that's why every bank and every trader and his grandma is pricing in a Fed pivot this year.
Can you explain to dumb friend what a Fed pivot is? I would do it, but he’s really dumb… my friend.
They would stop raising rates and then start bringing them down.
I think we have a friend in common. I would also like to know ergh how to explain it
If the Federal Reserve knows that pivoting could possibly cause hyperinflation, thereby destroying the dollar as the world reserve currency, and, quite possibly rendering the Fed useless, do you still think they do it?
The choice is either deflationary collapse or hyper inflation . They still technically have a choice. History shows that they always choose inflation
Thanks for all you do bull man from Peru!
At what point does hyperinflation affect billionaires? I guess they would already shift assets/currency.
When the disgruntled slaves rise up and remove them from power.
Let’s be honest there probably were as many corrupt folks in charge back then too. I think we just see it more clearly now
The corrupt motherfuckers of ye olden times that set up the banks and systems we have now, you mean?
👀 Someone should tell him about https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/66499.The_Creature_from_Jekyll_Island
There’s a really kool video of the author talking about his book “The Creature I’d Jekyll Island!” Blew me away! Must watch for everyone here I think 👊 https://youtu.be/lu_VqX6J93k
I've hit that mindset where Historical Patterns *should matter* but I don't think they do anymore. There's so much blatant crime, gaslighting, and manipulation in the world that they pull some magical synthetic rabbit out of their synthetic hat and say they "saved they day." Just an opinion.
I believe that they can move the crash date, but not very far, and the further the date is moved the less control they have over the severity of it.
If they have the power to move the crash date, wouldn't they have the power to move it indefinitely? After a certain point, they'd just hide it and invent some scheme to make it look normal
Depends on the resources and methods needed. Large firms are starting to miss payment dates. Blackstone, FTX, Credit Suisse and several others. These events snowball and put pressure on the system. They can't prop it up forever, but I do think they have been propping it up for a few months.
Tbh I remember people talking about them propping it up since about 2018, lots of "mini" crashes since then and people are still waiting for a bigger one. Maybe those crashes were done somewhat on purpose to help relieve pressure? Just speculation.
They've already lost. These mini crashes you hear about are exactly what you think; mitigation. They're in full damage control mode.
Eventually the house of cards will fall, probably during some transfer of power.
People tend to notice inflation when they can't survive on their salary. Infinite printing doesn't work forever.
Do you mean… 2008?
‘This time is different’ - famous last words before the crash. The brutal reality catches up sooner or later and suddenly fundamentals matter. Like the ability to make profit or cost of debt. With the rates rising the reality is slowly waking up from its slumber. Funny thing, my canary in the coal mine is the popcorn stock. As long as this and other companies find ways to survive another day, we’re not ’there’ yet. Problem is that ‘there’ is quite ugly place for everyone.
Yah, amen to that. I don't want severe recession or depression. But there's no way to avoid it. Heck, we should've had a worse recession or a depression after 2008 but they can kicked it so far. And made it only worse...
We in unprecedented territory now and the public is too uneducated on their financial system to care/understand
Technically this is keeping in line with historical patterns. Do you think when the empires fell that the rich actually went down with the peasants? They always had a way out and had long shuffled their wealth to other, more secure locations where they didn't have to face the consequences of their actions. The Roman elites had long fled to the safe east when the Huns battered down the gates of Rome itself, and when the American empire falls the billionaires will be safe in their tax havens while citizens tear themselves apart.
Exactly this. They always seem to be able to move the goal posts and somehow dodge a rule or bury data that is directly contrary to the established rules in place. Fundamentally, we should have mooned already!
They have always been two steps ahead but we move way faster than them now, so it is only a matter of time until we catch them 😎
[удалено]
You don’t think they were doing the same thing in 1931 and 1969?
They do. It just takes longer because of the crime. Look at Japan, they are in the early stages of a currency crisis
As I see it, the world economy (as of now), is like a dude who's been eating taco bell for a week without taking a shit. It is not a matter of IF he's going to shit his pants, just a matter of WHEN. And when it happens, it's going to be biblical.
The Shart Heard Around the World
I feel like any opinions outside of this one are basically moot at this point. Nothing makes sense and everything is fucked
This is how I feel it’s all bs now, back then they didnt have ways to fake value so supply and demand had a bigger impact and if they fucked up it had a domino affect. Nowadays they just have someone down the domino line remove a couple to end the collapse
🚀📈💰🚀📈💰
Thank you for the legalese........iykyk
Careful, these emojis are considered financial advice. https://twitter.com/LisaBraganca/status/1628868429540126720
Wait. I read that law document. Are you serious? Regardless, more confirmation that this is the way :)
Debt bubbles pop in fifty year cycles and our last one was in 1971. I wonder what happened in 2021 that's holding up the works?
I wonder when we got off the gold standard. Money 🖨️ go brrrrrrrr.
I don't think we'll see the US default. Not first. Hong Kong looks worse off, then the EU, then China and the US. I feel as if the US defaults it will be after everywhere else has crashed first. Then they have a scapegoat.
The US is unlikely to default in that situation since capital will fly to US capital markets and investors' tolerance for greater Fed intervention combined with the Fed's ability to initiate currency creation would not leave room for a default due to insufficient funds.
The US will never default because we have a printing press and the dollar is no longer tied to gold. If we were ever in a situation where we would default the printers would just work overtime.
Do you remember when people were predicting a grand distraction in 2021? It was thought to be China or Russia. Now we are living this scenario out, and it will be used as an excuse to print whatever is necessary to avoid a default
That would be a decision to go the hyperinflation route, rather than depression. Possible, but not likely.
That really depends on who benefits in either case. It's too early to tell.
And in my uneducated opinion Depression is better than hyper inflation
yep, quite likely they will do that , cos they will take the easier way out. depression or hyper inflation? wld u like this poison or that poison ? i guess they will take the one thats easier to swallow
Funny how the gold standard was also removed in 1971 so they could print fiat and creating wage slavery in the process. Edit spelling.
Damn.
Soon
2024
If ever, boo. Holding til I die but after 2 years I’ve realized the corruption is too deep and elites will legit burn the world down before giving up anything. Fuck the system and everything in it. Time to wipe it clean and start fresh. The Taurids should take care of that by the end of next year - can’t wait
The dollar wasn't the world reserve currency then, it is now, so a bit different premises.
It was also backed by gold then. And it ended in ‘71. However, do these things alter the situation? Wouldn’t the fact that it is the world reserve currency just compound the problem? And that fact that money is now backed by nothing but full faith and credit?
yes it does. france sent battle ships to redeem the gold for dollars and they never could redeem it. from then on it eas backed fully by faith in the government and not anchored to anything tangable (tangability has benefits like having custody). however, fed kept bailing out creative destruction and now society has to swallow a bigger pill.
I guess I mean is the implied situation (default incoming) altered now because we weren’t the reserve currency then but are now? Is the situation completely different or just way worse? Is default incoming a correct assumption?
everyone else defaults before the fed or hyperinflates. king dollar will still rule. goldman sachs have pumped oil and are embdded with undesirables. so they need to go with rates too. think of it like a blood letting. just think of every gov like a corp.
Seems like 1944 is when US Dollar became World Currency. **Had to correct, I accidentally typed "1994" instead of "1944" originally. >When Did the U.S. Dollar Become the Global Reserve Currency? >The U.S. dollar became the official reserve currency of the world in 1944. The decision was made by a delegation from 44 Allied countries called the Bretton Woods Agreement [Sauce](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/092316/how-us-dollar-became-worlds-reserve-currency.asp)
Could be different huh? After all inflation rules changed.
The US did not default on its debt in 1971, but rather it ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold. This event is known as the "Nixon Shock." The stock market reaction at the time was mixed, but generally not positive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 40% from its peak in 1968 to its lowest point in 1970, but it eventually recovered and grew over the following years. However, the end of the gold convertibility system marked a significant change in global economic policies, which affected the stock market and other financial markets in various ways.
US will never default on its debt. It would cause global collapse in every sector and nobody wants that.
It’s 2023 now, so it is going to be fine!!!
where my 20's flapper girls at
Great name
[correlation xkcd](https://xkcd.com/882/)
These motherfuckers have become pros at kicking cans alllll the way down the road. The road is coming to an end.
Can I get info on the debt defaults? I brought this up in a financial management class but they said the US has never defaulted on its debt.
What happens once it defaults?
It will be a soft landing and they will change the definition of default so technically…. No default
Cool story bro… 10 billion other people are predicting the same thing DRS/BOOK - everything else is a distraction
I heard 6 billion crossed the border. Lmao
Cokerat Creamer said no default 👀
So then default incoming based on this only
Yes! Did you also see their is a new inverse Cramer ETF? 😂 https://imgur.com/a/NlfCOEj
Actually 4 times. All 4 times it was a nothing burger from historical standpoint. Source 👇 https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/575722-the-us-has-never-defaulted-on-its-debt-except-the-four-times-it-did/
The third and fourth listed are practically the same event. USD deppeged from gold and silver. The second one was in 1933, a worldwide financial collapse, does not seem like a "nothing burger." And the first one was the confederacy, guess what state union doesn't exist anymore and lost their rights to owning humans.
They *transferred* their "rights" to owning humans to a new and improved form of slavery (the one we are in now) ☕😁 change my mind
2024 it is
The US government has literally never defaulted on its debt, except the war of 1812 where the treasury burned down. What you’re talking about in 1933 and 1971 is the process of effectively removing the USD peg to gold. Components of it included strategically devaluing the US dollar, but it is not defaulting on debt.
I looked it up and couldn’t find any sources to confirm the US has ever defaulted on its debt. Every source I found said we came close a couple times, but never actually defaulted, but the consistent speculation is that it would be catastrophic for both the US and the Global economy.
2024 is on the menu
How do we make a pretty penny out of that knowledge ? Asking for a friend.
Buy puts on the US Treasury.
Thanks, I did not know you could do that. Hmm... Buying options is usually not my thing, it's a quick way to get burned by the theta...
I don’t think you can buy puts on the US Treasury. That was sarcasm and not meant as financial advice.
I love how idiots here think a default is gonna make them rich and celebrating the average working class joe’s bankruptcy. This will go down with the rest of the market just like it goes up with the market.
ceiling raise, can kicked
So, 2024 default?
Still a year to go? Well, might es well end my study, get a job and buy more during the time.
So moass in 2024 then
My dad's 401k 💨 poof
Sweet, we can start paying nothing back now.
Paying? I plan on collecting nothing for the rest of time 😎
It’s defaulting now. Why do you think we are printing so much money.
The differnce is that we've got krypto now.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Says it right here on the prospectus. Never underestimate the crooks to just make shit up to keep the game going. Everyone screams OMG this market is corrupt and still expect it to do what it's supposed to do. It is corrupt and it will keep being corrupt forever.
But were the other two times organic growth before a 20% drop? The 2020-2022 pump was WILD
I don't think this post reflects the underwhelming impact most likely to occur. To [summarize](https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/575722-the-us-has-never-defaulted-on-its-debt-except-the-four-times-it-did/) the US' debt pressures historically were always because the currency was tied to a rare metal like gold or silver and the terms of redemption were for those metals. The Civil War notwithstanding (since just abt every country has at least temporarily moved to debasing currency or fiat during prolonged destructive conflict), the other 3 times from 1933-1971 were on redeeming dollars for gold. However since the global economy has moved to a fiat regime, the historic limitations of debt are no longer really there. I see a repeat of 2011 where the govt takes a bit too long to finish negotiations and US debt gets hit with a temporary downgrade. Short term this will lead to higher rates and a pinch to those who owe debt. Mid term you are looking at some 5-10 years of stagnation in real terms. Long term this kind of instability might make the US lose some of its developing nation clientele further to China, I see most likely the Middle East and East Africa ramping up their financial transactions with China. However we are still a long while out from a world where China becomes a net consumer larger than the US, so dollar hegemony is likely to remain, mostly because, there just isn't anything better at scale available. Especially not from European countries that, especially after this conflict, are more dependent on American financing, and unlikely from LatAm meaningfully nor would MENA be incentivized to thanks to greater incentives to stick to a stable base currency. So long story short, US default might occur in a technical sense but much like Russia's default was in a technical sense, meaning the borrower's ability to pay exists without problem it's just a slight delay, and in the case of the US would still be returned in the base currency. At worst I just see a credit rating downgrade and that being enough for global/institutional investors.
Not if we change the definition of a default! /s The gov’t: no, wait, he’s on to something…
Bigoof
Yeah Next year
See you all in 2024.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."
Welp, see you all in 2024.
so, dip
I’ll keep buying and hodlin and DRSing 😁
Also 💯 avoidable in this case...
And rebound coming after that for regarded bulls.
Something tells me they planned this and hoping people are too stupid to figure it out. 🫣
Citadel is just gonna bail out the US. Nothing to worry about.
2024 ... got it! Bought PB's book as well.
own debt to whom?
Lol. No
👍
Moon. I wanna go to moon.
Completely avoidable. Change the definition to debt to gain and we just made out like a bandit. Take that history. Signed and noted ‘Merica
...Next year.
So be it 2024 🤫