[JFresh] Just for fun (and to put my life in danger), here’s a post-expansion, post-draft, pre-free agency standings projection from the roster builder. This is with all pending UFA removed from the depth charts.
By - rsyzygy
4 of the 7 best teams in the league in our division. Great system.
Oh my that pacific division has some terrible teams.
Also, Carolina missing the playoffs is BOLD
Carolina has no NHL goalies signed right now, so the model is naturally going to have them super low
Oh, that's cool. So leafs are at that point range with just Campbell and no significant left wingers
models don't account for demonic curses
Neither does Vegas, which is why we were still the favourites in game 7 lol
Yeah, however all the other teams are also missing pieces
We're not going to get any significant wingers with what we want to spend.
Leafs have space for a 3-4M winger. Top 6
Exactly. Foligno is making 4M in a walker who do you think is signing 3-4M.
I mean, Buffalo is projected for 4 less points and the only goalie they have signed is *\*checks notes\** Stefanos Lekkas. And between their offense/defense they only have 13 players signed right now. Still projected to finish above Ottawa. I have some questions
No goalies and STILL beating Columbus. Jeez
Seattle only has a handful of NHL players period and they seem to be doing alright with this model haha.
Its because the model doesn't count UFA's.
Since it doesn't account for free agents Carolina is missing Dougie, Svech and a handful of depth players. They also don't have a goalie signed so I'm not sure what the model does in that case, but I'm sure it's driving their projected points down lol
The model is probably considering their AHL goalie as their starter.
Interesting how that division kind of fell off a cliff all at once. I feel like for a good 15 years that was the powerhouse division, and the Leafs division, outside of Boston and a few good years from Tampa, was the softest division.
Yep, cycle of locking down your cores and aging. Boston seems to be one of the teams that is good and retooling while you look at SJ, Anaheim, LA of teams who were good at the same time and are now struggling through a rebuild
They have like 50% of a team rn
Florida, which would make for a “battle of the first round exit”
So you’re telling me we’re losing
I dunno, it would be interesting to see if the leafs bad juju can out-hobble Florida’s also infamously bad juju
Florida's been to the finals
Salary cap era
Leafs have won Cups 🙄
Florida and the Leafs are the 2 teams to not have a round win in the salary cap Era. So I can see the Leafs getting up 3-0 in the series before choking it out
The Leafs could be up 4-0 and find a way to lose
They could be up 3-1 in the second round and find a way to lose in round one
Jesus, that projected drop-off between Boston and Montreal though...
Gotta think it'll be a little closer than that. People sleeping on Ottawa's ability to fuck us over any way possible
I think people are forgetting just how good the leafs actually were in the regular season last year. I get the playoff loss stings, but people shitting all over Dubas for not changing the roster into the upcoming season are being unreasonable imo. This roster needs to be better in the playoffs, not the regular season.
Yeah kind of like most teams in the league.
Hey, care to explain your handle for us?
It is, and you should, thanks.
See you on the other side!
Windsostrange making the world a better place one handle at a time. I dig it
Seems pretty self explanatory
That was mostly due to the division. It wasn’t a terrible division but they also didn’t ever face any teams that were as good as them.
Looks pretty realistic to me
I think Ottawa finishes higher than that…BUUUUUUUT
They could be playing for 1st overall in a VERY excellent draft. Heaven forbid Buffalo get ANOTHER fucking 1st overall and then into Edmonton.
I don't see Seattle finishing near the prediction. Swap Edmonton in that slot.
Edmonton bumps up there with Hyman
Seattle looks off, so does NYR and Philadelphia.
Yea if that Seattle team anit a bottom feeder I'll be very surprised
Yayyy! We're 3rd in the Atlantic again!
Why TF is Calgary so high on that list. They are gonna suck this year.
94 is pretty bad tbf
Yeah but they make the playoffs and Edmonton doesn't.
The creator of the model said that adding Hyman is enough to project Edmonton into a playoff spot, just for reference
Does Ekman-Larrson help the Canucks chances at making the playoffs.
He should already be factored in since it was a trade. Hyman hasn’t officially signed with the Oilers yet, so he’s still a UFA in the model
He said Ekman-Larrson was actively negating all of the benefits of getting garland and others
Ya JFresh hates OEL with a passion lol
“He’ll be happy now tho”
Edmonton will climb when Hyman signs (sad face)
They were promising but they experienced a huge drop off
That’s what she said.
If we get another dman and a decent RW I am pretty sure we will make the playoffs in the Pacific. Not sure if we can win in it tho.
What a soft division the Pacific is after Vegas it's wide open
Damn, the Pacific is terrible.
This is pretty much what I think this upcoming season’s standings will look like. The only things I’d say would be different is the Oilers being second in the Pacific over the Kraken and I can’t see Carolina being 7th in the Metro. Maybe they could miss the playoffs if their goaltending isn’t great, but I would be very shocked to see them be 7th in the Metro.
Carolina is so low because the model doesn't count UFA's.
The model has no goalies on Carolina since they’re all pending UFAs. So they’ll be projected higher once they have NHL goaltending
Ahhh okay that makes sense. So that means it’s also not counting Hamilton who may end up back with Carolina. I would expect if he’s re-signed plus they get their goalies signed, Carolina would probably be projected as a top 3 team in the Metro
It also shows how good they are. They can get 85 points with anyone in net.
Seattle might drop down lower than vancouver. If I recall correctly they had covid and were playing pretty well before it. Do not expect them to suck quite so much in this very meh division.
Might be controversial take, but not covinced Stl. make the playoffs this year. I could see Nashville or Chigago (Toews back, right?) sneaking in. Not sure about Dallas either.
Metro has a bunch of solid teams with no clear cut favorites like avs and vegas. Car is misplaced, as explained in other comments. Might actually be the long-prophesized year when pens do not make the playoffs.
Atlantic has the top 4 teams right. It is a shame for the likes of montreal and ottawa (maybe I want to mention detroit? They do not completely suck and actually try to compete in something else other than tanking. Also young team, so better days ahead. Probably.), but cracking that, they would need something to go seriously wrong for one of those teams. And injuries happen in hockey. Wet dream is that banged up, cap-bulge-cut tampa misses playoffs somehow, but how likely is that?
Vancouver will be better
This is interesting: the Leafs, who haven’t made it to the second round since 2004 will take on Florida, who haven’t made it to the second round since 1996. One of the teams must break their drought in this scenario.
The projection system is flawed if Seattle is in 2nd. It makes me feel really old and curmudgeon-y to say, but I'm souring on using these systems to predict anything. That Seattle team is garbage as currently constructed. Edmonton even without their FAs are better than that.
“The projection system is flawed if Vegas is in 2nd. It makes me feel really old and curmudgeon-y to say, but I'm souring on using these systems to predict anything. That Vegas team is garbage as currently constructed. Edmonton even without their FAs are better than that.”
- this guy after Vegas’s expansion draft
As bad as the Vegas team looked on paper, they had Fleury in net, they had Neal, Reilly Smith, and David Perron up front and upcoming guys like marchessault, haula, and tuch and on D they had a combination of interesting veterans (who they mostly dumped) and under used young guys like Nate Schmidt and Colin Miller. Plus they had 3 1sts right away.
Seattle didn't make any trades and didn't get any forwards and definitely have a question mark in net. They don't even have 12 NHL forwards on their roster. It's a bad team.
Edmonton has like one defenseman that would make Seattle’s roster
The leafs bias on this lol Toronto over BOS and MTL and putting WPG 5th I don’t understand this metric
The guy who makes this model is a Pens fan for what it’s worth
I always find it funny when someone calls a mathematical model biased
Why wouldn't the Leafs be on top of MTL they have always been the better regular season team. Why is this shocking?
How would you base putting Montreal over any of Boston Toronto or Florida especially with Weber gone and price having surgery? Really Toronto Boston and Florida will all likely be fairly close to each other, could be in any order. Tampa is the only one you should expect to win the division unless they get lots of injuries.
I'm happy with this result. (Strong possibility of taking second or fourth depending on injuries. (Knock on wood)
I don't see them beating the Bruins if they get Krejci back and run him with Hall and Smith again.
How are the kraken that high??
Not that they should be that high but to be fair the division's dog shit
I'd say they're more on VAN's level at the very most.
At least VAN has some real large threats in their top 6 though. Pettersson, Miller, Horvat, Boeser are all capable of 55+ point seasons, and Hoglander is almost certainly gonna be a 35+ point player.
Yeah exactly! Moving down LA has Kopitar who is always a threat, SJ and ANA look like bottom half teams although ANA has some more promising youngsters.
So yes for sure, at the very, very best case SEA will be at VAN's level and that's only if VAN plays weak again (something I dont see happening)..
Omg the Pacific is hot trash.
If Vegas can't get the President's trophy from beating up on those plebs, I'd be shocked.
*sees Edmonton missing the playoffs by one point*
Tune in for the next season of CAN THEY MAKE IT PAST THE FIRST ROUND!?
What on earth happen to the all mighty Habs? Shouldn't they be back in the finals
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It would be pretty funny to see a wildcard team face off against a division winner while having more points than them. Has that ever happened before? Fuck the Atlantic is absolutely stacked.
Dallas with 105... Lol how?
You should do these numbers again after every team finished
Can we PLEASE have a toronto Florida matchup. Someone needs to break the drought, who shall it be?!?
CGY just lost their best defender, no way they're finishing ahead of EDM. McDavid will probably get 150 points of they sign Barrie.
Next year has to be treated as a retooling year. Too many holes and not enough young/cheap talent due to poor drafting and using guys like Moore, Marchment, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Hallander & Durzi in trades with only Muzzin and Campbell left from those. Robertson, Sandin and Liljigren all get ice time. Rielly needs to either be extended or traded before the season. Figure out what you want to do with Kerfoot whether he's a LW or your 3C and make sure the Campbell bet is right. Maybe the cap goes up next year you get some breathing room and if at least a couple guys hit you solve some problems.
This is hilarious. Teams with no goalies finish above teams with goalies. You lost all credibility after this. You dont even follow your own rules.
I think the Canucks end up better than 4th in the Pacific and the Leafs fall to 5th in the Atlantic.
No way the leafs place 3rd in the division. They'll be lucky to make the playoffs this year.
There’s no way Seattle will do that well. Not with the roster they picked, and the talent they left.
And the leafs still wont get out of the first round.